EDITORIAL / OPINION · SITREP No. 5 · AUGUST 30, 2026
Three summers, one question.
The question: vibes or reality? Are the pre-08 warning signals back in 2026? Seventeen data points from late August of each year, side by side.
| READING | SUMMER 2007 | SUMMER 2008 | AUGUST 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock market | At record highs | Bear market, about 18% off the peak | Near record highs Record set Aug 13; slightly below it by month end |
| Shiller CAPE August readings | 26.2 | 21.4 | 42.2 |
| Unemployment | 4.6% Aug 2007 | 6.1% Aug 2008 | 4.1% Jul 2026 |
| Monthly payrolls Initial prints, as reported at the time | -4,000 Aug 07 report; later revised up | -84,000 Eighth straight monthly decline | -23,000 Prior two months revised down 103,000 |
| Fed funds rate | 5.25% First cut came Sept 18 | 2.00% Deep into cutting | 3.50-3.75% On hold after cuts; three July dissents favored a hike |
| Headline CPI July, year over year | 2.4% | 5.6% | 3.4% |
| Consumer sentiment Michigan, June to Aug average | 86.4 | 60.2 | 52.1 Below the summer of 2008 |
| Federal deficit Share of GDP | 1.2% FY2007 actual | 3.2% FY2008 actual | 5.8% FY2026, CBO projection |
| Federal debt and interest Debt held by the public | About 35% of GDP | About 39% of GDP | About 101% of GDP Net interest about 3.3% of GDP, CBO projection |
| Middle East war Ongoing and unpopular | Iraq surge at its peak About 168,000 troops; 61% opposed the surge plan | Iraq and Afghanistan The defining issue of the 2008 election | Iran: Operation Epic Fury, Feb 28 to May 5 Largest buildup since 2003; 56% opposed (March poll); disruption continues |
| Crude oil, WTI | Rising toward $80 | $147 Peak, July 11, 2008 | About $84 Aug 25 close |
| Strategic Petroleum Reserve | About 690M barrels | About 706M barrels | 290M barrels Lowest since 1982 after the Hormuz drawdown |
| Months of housing supply Existing homes, NAR | About 10 | About 10.4 | 4.6 New homes: 9.6 months |
| ARM share of applications MBA weekly survey | 21.0% July 2007 | 7.3% Aug 2008; the 2008 problem was legacy resets, not new applications | 7.9% |
| The opaque asset class | Structured mortgage credit BNP Paribas froze three funds Aug 9, 2007, saying it could not value the assets | Being marked down hard | Private credit, about $2T Fitch default rate 6.0% under its broad definition; other trackers run lower. Dimon has criticized valuation marks while calling systemic risk unlikely |
| The capex engine | Housing, already rolling over Peaked at 6.7% of GDP in late 2005 | Collapsed | AI data centers, still accelerating 2026 spending plans up sharply over 2025 per company disclosures |
| Was a recession underway? | No. It began that December About four months away; nobody knew | Yes, about eight months in Not officially dated until Dec 1, 2008 | Unknown By construction, we would not know yet |
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