Three Summers, One Question: 2007, 2008, and 2026 Side by Side

The question: vibes or reality? Are the pre-08 warning signals back in 2026? Seventeen data points from late August of each year, side by side.

READING	SUMMER 2007	SUMMER 2008	AUGUST 2026
Stock market	At record highs	Bear market, about 18% off the peak	Near record highs Record set Aug 13; slightly below it by month end
Shiller CAPE August readings	26.2	21.4	42.2
Unemployment	4.6% Aug 2007	6.1% Aug 2008	4.1% Jul 2026
Monthly payrolls Initial prints, as reported at the time	-4,000 Aug 07 report; later revised up	-84,000 Eighth straight monthly decline	-23,000 Prior two months revised down 103,000
Fed funds rate	5.25% First cut came Sept 18	2.00% Deep into cutting	3.50-3.75% On hold after cuts; three July dissents favored a hike
Headline CPI July, year over year	2.4%	5.6%	3.4%
Consumer sentiment Michigan, June to Aug average	86.4	60.2	52.1 Below the summer of 2008
Federal deficit Share of GDP	1.2% FY2007 actual	3.2% FY2008 actual	5.8% FY2026, CBO projection
Federal debt and interest Debt held by the public	About 35% of GDP	About 39% of GDP	About 101% of GDP Net interest about 3.3% of GDP, CBO projection
Middle East war Ongoing and unpopular	Iraq surge at its peak About 168,000 troops; 61% opposed the surge plan	Iraq and Afghanistan The defining issue of the 2008 election	Iran: Operation Epic Fury, Feb 28 to May 5 Largest buildup since 2003; 56% opposed (March poll); disruption continues
Crude oil, WTI	Rising toward $80	$147 Peak, July 11, 2008	About $84 Aug 25 close
Strategic Petroleum Reserve	About 690M barrels	About 706M barrels	290M barrels Lowest since 1982 after the Hormuz drawdown
Months of housing supply Existing homes, NAR	About 10	About 10.4	4.6 New homes: 9.6 months
ARM share of applications MBA weekly survey	21.0% July 2007	7.3% Aug 2008; the 2008 problem was legacy resets, not new applications	7.9%
The opaque asset class	Structured mortgage credit BNP Paribas froze three funds Aug 9, 2007, saying it could not value the assets	Being marked down hard	Private credit, about $2T Fitch default rate 6.0% under its broad definition; other trackers run lower. Dimon has criticized valuation marks while calling systemic risk unlikely
The capex engine	Housing, already rolling over Peaked at 6.7% of GDP in late 2005	Collapsed	AI data centers, still accelerating 2026 spending plans up sharply over 2025 per company disclosures
Was a recession underway?	No. It began that December About four months away; nobody knew	Yes, about eight months in Not officially dated until Dec 1, 2008	Unknown By construction, we would not know yet

WHAT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE 2007

Sahm rule

-0.03

recession trigger is 0.50

10-year minus 3-month Treasury curve

+0.83 pp

not inverted

High-yield credit spread

2.63%

no stress priced

Household debt service

11.2% of income

well below the run-up to 2008

GOLD-EDGED ROWS ARE WHERE TODAY IS THE WORST OF THE THREE · Housing is the honest exception. Underwriting, homeowner equity, and supply are healthier than in either 2007 or 2008, and credit markets are not pricing panic. Valuations are higher, fiscal and monetary room is thinner, sentiment is worse, and another energy shock has arrived. This is just the data, not a forecast.

Sources: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers · BLS · BEA · CBO · Treasury · NBER · Federal Reserve · FRED (UNRATE, T10Y3M, BAMLH0A0HYM2, SAHMREALTIME, TDSP, DCOILWTICO, MSACSR) · MBA Weekly Applications Survey · NAR · EIA (SPR) · ICE · Fitch · Robert Shiller / multpl (CAPE) · Pew and Gallup (war polling). 2026 figures are the latest available as of Aug 30, 2026; rates as of Aug 27-28. Compiled Aug 30, 2026.