I worked through the 2008 crash. Some of this feels familiar.

I keep seeing adjustable-rate mortgages come back into the conversation little by little, and it takes me back to the fall of 2007, before most of us understood that something was already starting to break.

I got out of the Army in the fall of 2006 and started my first finance job in the fall of 2007. We bought our first home the same year in the height of the market. Freddie Mac's national avg was around 6.4% at the time, and our VA loan closed at 6.25%. While shopping for loans, brokers also floated lower-payment ARM options before we closed, as they were pretty common then. We passed and went with the fixed loan.

While I don't think 2026 is 2008 all over again, there are some huge similarities and differences. But IMO when I look at this summer, the vibe, the market headlines, and ingredients feel familiar.

Oil and gas prices are high again. Crude hit $147 a barrel in July 2008, and regular gas crossed $4 nationally. Today the crude barrel is back above $80 while continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, and the national average for regular gas is back around $4.

Consumer sentiment is really bad right now, the University of Michigan index was 56.4 in June 2008. This year it fell to 44.8 in May, recovered to 49.5 in June and 55.2 in July, then slipped back to 51.7 in August. 1/3 of lower-income households are behind on some of their monthly bills.

Housing affordability is not affordable, home values are still near all time highs in many locations. And while home prices remain high, mortgage rates are still close to 7%, and buyers are looking for almost any reasonable way to lower the monthly payment. And ARMs are back on the radar, ARMs made up 7.9% of all mortgage applications in the latest MBA survey. While nowhere near the 08 levels, it is still interesting that ARMs are being considered in the environment, is it for affordability or something else?

Growth is slowing, and hiring has weakened, while inflation is still too high, the Fed can't continue to ignore, IMO. That tension feels familiar as well. Record markets while the rest of the economy is giving mixed signals.

Then there is the bond market, as we have all been reading in the news. The 30-year Treasury touched its highest yield in roughly 19 years. The federal government is running a record deficit, and Treasury has expanded its longer-term debt buybacks to support liquidity.

None of that means another 2008 is coming.

There are important differences.

I agree today's mortgage rules are much tougher. Income and documentation are checked, and lenders generally have to determine that borrowers can handle a mortgage beyond an introductory teaser rate. Homeowners also have record amounts of equity today, which is very different from the leverage and negative equity in the housing market before the last crash.

So, yes, the kindling will probably be different if something happens, but that's the thing about the fuel. You can see it and call it out, but what and how it is actually triggered isn't always clear until after the fire.

For more personal context, from 2007 through 2009, I worked the phones at a large mutual fund firm. As the market collapsed, I listened to people lose money in real time, call after call.

A lot of those calls were from retirees who had bought funds they thought were safe income investments, can't speculate why or if they were oversold safety, but plenty of stories and actions can be found if you go looking. Some didn't understand that part of what looked like a normal monthly dividend coming back every month could actually be their own capital. They could see it, as decades of savings disappeared, and they didn't really understand why and how it was possible. Those were hard phone calls and long days.

I couldn't fix anything, all I could do was listen, explain what I could, and that was about it.

After two years of calls, I left finance for a while. I went back to school and spent the next four years doing mental health and suicide prevention outreach for fellow combat veterans at the VA.

The work was heavier, but in one strange way the work was easier. I could actually do something to help them in many cases.

I left that job in 2013 and everything here is my own opinion and my experiences, nobody else's.

Those years changed the way I think about money and about people living through hard times.

The people on the other side of those phones didn't need someone to explain the crisis to them after the fact. They needed help before it happened and to make sure they were invested in products that matched their risk tolerance and had some other money set aside just in case.

These experiences are a big part of why I eventually started my own financial education and rate tracking company.

So no, before you write a long comment attacking me, I don't think we're headed for another 2008 just because the vibe and feelings match. But eventually, something or some event that nobody priced in will show up. My guess is it will be something to do with AI capex and/or a potential reduction in government spending or ability to borrow, but that is a whole other post.

So my takeaways- whenever you borrow, whatever you buy, leave yourself some room and time to be wrong. Leave enough room for what no one sees coming, and time to ride it out if needed. And don't panic. Keep saving if possible and keep your savings safe and accessible; everything should be optimized and locked up all the time. Make a contingency plan, stress test it, do your homework before buying anything, and give yourself a time cushion too. Time can be just as valuable as reserves sometimes, but they work best together; reserves can delay a forced sell, and time can help you avoid one. Either way, if you have done this, you've given yourself a real chance to be okay. That's what those calls taught me.

The live VA and conventional averages are on Rate Watch, updated daily.