Is the US about to drag the world into a recession?

I think the honest answer is yes, and here is my thesis of why and why this is different than in the past.

The world is already slowing. OECD says 2.9% growth this year, Europe at 1%, Japan under 1%, China slowing. Inflation across the G20 is over 4% and the oil & fertilizer shortages keep it there for the time being as long as the war continues and supply can’t be addressed. Eventually a recession reduces demand, but that takes time and might only flatten the curve, not reduce the high prices unless both wars ends.

Bond yields are at multi decade highs everywhere. Germany highest since 2011, Japan over 3% for the first time since the 90s, UK highest since 2008. And every major central bank, except China, is raising rates into a worldwide slowdown at the same time.

The US is different in two big ways. We are the only big Western economy still growing, and most of that recorded growth is borrowed AI built out spending. And our 10 year is the rate everyone else prices off of, so when it went from 4 to 5.2, everyone's borrowing costs around the world went up with it.

Then there's the latest waiting game problem I think started over the last 2 weeks. If you think yields will go higher next week, you don't buy this week. If you think the war truce rumbles aren’t real, you wait (both ended up being the right action for 2 weeks already). So we get weak auctions, yield goes up, waiting looks smart and re-enforces the belief and behavior. Even the Treasury's buyback last week only got 40% filled. I think both sides are waiting for a better number.

And none of this even touches the actual underlying problem. $40 trillion in debt, an absent and inept congress, a war with no end, and oil driving inflation. And now news drops last night, Iran offered to reopen the Strait in 7 days. Trump rejected it, I think the market already saw this coming.

So my thesis, our rates will stay high, that keeps everyone's rates high, Europe and Japan can't absorb it and slow further, and when the AI spending slows, we're all in it together. Oil is the one ejection button and it just got rejected again, guess we want to go down with the plane and crash and burn. What am I missing? Where am I wrong?